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For every one-point drop in a county’s percentage of non-Hispanic whites from 2015 to 2019, the likelihood of an insurgent hailing from that county increased by 25 percent.

In follow-up polls, Pape added two additional features to the profile:

The majority of participants (52 percent) came from counties won by Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

By and large, nearly 90 percent of participants were not affiliated with rightwing extremist groups such as the Proud Boys (twenty-five arrested), Oath Keepers (thirteen arrested), the Three Percenters (six arrested), or Aryan Nation (one arrested).

Almost a third had a white-collar job and 14 percent owned their own business.

Their median age was approximately forty-two, compared to traditional activists who tended to be in their twenties and early-thirties.

The study found that the 377 arrested on January 6 were defined by the following characteristics: much larger than any of us would have thought before this poll.” Within that nine percent over half-that is, five percent of all American adults-strongly agreed that force was justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency. Most disturbing, as Pape has reflected, was that “nine percent of American adults, which equates to twenty-three million people, believed that force was justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency.

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conservatives regarding the scope of and drivers behind the insurrectionist movement. And the third is a 1,000-person survey of U.S. The second is a 1,000-person nationally representative survey to understand national scope and drivers of the insurrectionist movement. The CPOST report synthesizes three separate studies: The first contains demographics and other data of 377 individuals arrested or charged for January 6 assault. It offers a revealing portrait of those arrested and their supporters-who the report identifies as “committed insurrectionists.” “ Understanding American Domestic Terrorism,” published in April 2021, is an invaluable report by Pape and his associates at CPOST. Who are these people? Why did they do what they did? Do they represent “a new kind of violent mass movement”? And, if so, what does this movement foreshadow for the nation’s political future? Two social scientists, Robert Pape and Keven Ruby, of the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST), warn that the January 6 assault on the Capitol represented “a new kind of violent mass movement in which more ‘normal’ Trump supporters-middle-class and, in many cases, middle-aged people without obvious ties to the far right-joined with extremists in an attempt to overturn a presidential election.”Īs of mid-December 2021, 727 people were charged for their actions in the Januassault on the Capitol. At this point, we have at least forty candidates who have promoted the QAnon conspiracy.” He warns that “some of these individuals will win seats and have influence in Congress.” Jensen worries that “as a leadup to the midterms, a large number of candidates running for office on the Republican side are individuals who have promoted disinformation around the election of 2020. It’s been developing over the last couple of decades and involves the mainstreaming of radical political opinion-deeply divisive and polarizing rhetoric-around issues like race, immigration, public health, you name it.” He tells The Progressive, “What we are seeing pre-dates January 6. Michael Jensen, Ph.D., a senior researcher at the University of Maryland’s National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), shares Marche’s concern. Capitol was an act of collective political violence, inspired by a leader, President Trump, and not merely vandalism or trespassing for other purposes.” “As someone else has noted, January 6 was like the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center bombing, it’s a premonition of what’s going to come-it’s not the event itself.” “It was pretty clear and didn’t surprise me, even modestly,” says Marche, author of T he Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future, in an interview with The Progressive. And he won’t be surprised if something like it happens again. Like many people who have an eye on the rise of the radical right, Stephen Marche was not surprised by the violent effort of enraged Donald Trump supporters who sought to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential election on January 6, 2021.

Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on January 6, 2021. President Donald Trump climb through a window they broke as they storm the U.S.